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Russia Facing Europe: A Provisional Road Map

Image courtesy of Kremlin.ru. (CC BY 4.0)

This article was originally published by the Carnegie Moscow Center on 9 October 2019.

Russia need not concern itself about a new security architecture in Europe: eventually, one will grow out of its ongoing confrontation with the United States, together with the combined impact of Moscow’s rapprochement with Beijing and the evolving rivalry between the United States and China.
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Achieving A Sustainable Peace in Yemen Lies with Locally Driven Initiatives

Image courtesy of EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid/Flickr. (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

This article was originally published by the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS) in August 2019.

The conflict in Yemen will not be solved by a peace agreement between the Houthis and the internationally recognized government due to the increased fragmentation of internal political and economic structures.

The United Nations (UN) describes the conflict in Yemen as the world’s largest humanitarian disaster, as more than an estimated 24 million Yemenis currently need assistance. This underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive peace agreement. However, whereas the UN-led ongoing peace negotiations focuses on the elite level, sustainable peace in Yemen will depend on whether or not local actors are incorporated into the transitional political process and the future Yemeni state.
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The Path to Politics: Belarus Prepares for Double Elections

Image courtesy of Cencillería del Ecuador/Flickr. (CC BY-SA 2.0)

This article was originally published by the Carnegie Moscow Center on 20 August 2019.

Elections in Belarus are traditionally administrative rituals. However, amid growing tensions with Russia and increased discussion of a future presidential transition in Minsk, the upcoming Belarusian parliamentary and presidential votes may be the start of cautious political change in the country.

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US-China Trade War: Why the EU Should Take Sides and Favour the Rules-based Order

This article was originally published by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) on 22 July 2019.

The recent G20 summit in Osaka in June failed to deliver a breakthrough in the growing US-China rivalry over trade and technological supremacy. Like the rest of the world, Europe is feeling the heat of the trade war US President Donald Trump unleashed against China. As a resolution of this tug-of-war is not in sight, the EU’s new leadership should start preparing a comprehensive response.

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External and Internal Trade: The EU and the EAEU Compared

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This graphic shows how the the overall level of internal trade among the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) remains relatively low at 14.6 percent, especially when compared to the European Union (EU), where around 64 percent of trade was between members in 2017. The graphic also shows the percentage of external trade for both unions. For an insight into Russia’s policy towards the EAEU and how this fits into Moscow’s Eurasian strategy, see Jeronim Perović’s chapter in Strategic Trends 2019 here.

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