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Why India Remains Neutral over Ukraine

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin at the 21st India–Russia Annual summit in New Delhi on December 6, 2021. (This image is a copyrighted work of the Government of India, licensed under the Government Open Data License – India (GODL) It was published by Press Information Bureau on behalf of Prime Minister’s Office, Government of India under the ID 105749.)

As Russia’s war rages in Ukraine, India has so far refrained from publicly criticizing Russia. India is unlikely to change course. This mirrors its national interests. India’s worst-case scenario would be an isolated Russia.

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Russia, China, and European Security

This week’s featured graphic shows Russia, China, and European Security. To find out more on the impact of the China-Russia relationship on transatlantic security, read Brian G. Carlson’s Strategic Trends 2021 chapter here.

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Europe’s Nuclear Landscape

This week’s featured graphic maps Europe’s nuclear landscape. To find out more on Europe and the nuclear ban treaty, read Névine Schepers’ CSS Analyses in Security Policy here.

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A New US President Offers Chances to Reduce NATO-Russia Tensions

Image courtesy of U.S. Embassy Kyiv Ukraine/Flickr.

Russian foreign policy needs to be understood and adequately addressed for diplomacy to have a chance for a comeback in NATO-Russia relations. Here, the election of Joe Biden as US president could serve to reverse the worrisome tendencies in US foreign policy under Trump and restore pragmatic dialog and direct military contacts with Moscow. Calls from expert communities for rebuilding the arms control architecture to reduce the risk of unintended incidents and escalation are growing louder.

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The Biden Administration’s Impulse to US-EU Cooperation on Libya

Image courtesy of Tech. Sgt. Brigitte Brantley/DVIDS.

The US has maintained a relatively passive approach to Libya under President Donald Trump, whose administration largely left the Libyan dossier to Egypt, several Arab Gulf states, Turkey, Europeans, and Russia. In 2021, however, America’s new leadership will probably try to assert US influence in the war-torn country more actively.[i] President-elect Joe Biden and those in his inner circle have vowed to push back against Moscow in various ways, which means Libya could be a growing point of contention between the incoming US administration and Russia. In any event, the Libyan crisis offers Biden an opportunity to demonstrate to Washington’s traditional Western allies that his administration is determined to reassert US leadership in the world and stand against President Vladimir Putin’s designs for Libya and, by extension, in the Middle East and Africa too. It is unclear, however, whether Biden’s plans for countering Moscow’s hand in Libya will be more rhetorical or strategic, and how far his administration would be ready to escalate US-Russia tensions in relation to Libya.