Russia will present the expected withdrawal of the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Elimination Treaty (INF) as a step forcing a military response from Moscow. Even if the Russian Federation were to violate the INF by deploying new cruise missiles with a range greater than 500 km, the U.S. withdrawal from the treaty creates opportunity to blur responsibility. In the event of divided opinions within NATO, Russia’s position in arms control might be stronger vis-à-vis Europe and, indirectly, the United States. Moreover, Russia will continue expansion of its arsenal of ground-launched missiles.
This graphic of the week maps the 57 OSCE participating states and the organization’s 11 partner countries. To find out more about the OSCE, see Christian Nünlist’s CSS Analyses “The OSCE and the Future of European Security” and “The OSCE’s Military Pillar: The Swiss FSC Chairmanship“. For more CSS charts, maps and graphics on defense policy, click here.
This graphic shows the changes in defense budgets of various European countries from 2016 to 2017. For more on the challenges facing European defense and armament planners, see Michael Haas and Annabelle Vuille’s recent addition to the CSS Analyses in Security Policy series here. For more CSS charts, maps and graphics on defense policy, click here.
This article was originally published by the Danish Institue for International Studies (DIIS) on 14 November 2018.
EU defence cooperation suffers from a lack of strategic purpose. This challenge offers an opportunity for smaller members such as Denmark to stress that PESCO supported by Germany and the French EI2 initiative are not and should not be competitive models.