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Top Ten Foreign Policy Trends in 2019

Image courtesy of European External Action Service/Flickr. (CC BY-NC 2.0)

This article was originally published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) on 3 January 2019.

Top ten trends that will occupy European foreign policymakers in 2019

It’s a new year and thus a new opportunity to predict the big events and trends that will shake the world in 2019. We want to get this in early, so you have time to forget what we said by the end of the year.

However, lest you think that we have completely forgotten the recently deceased 2018, we have responded to the demands of the intellectual harpies our trusted ECFR colleagues and graded ourselves on last year’s predictions. With our usual combination of feigned humility and self-delusion, we eked out a score of 7.5 out of 10.

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Empowering European Defense: A 21st Century US Army Strategy

Image courtesy of DVIDS/Bill Boecker

This article was originally published by the Small Wars Journal on 19 December 2018.

Since the close of the Second World War the United States has retained a significant ground force presence in Europe to defend against Russian aggression. While laudable during the halcyon days of the Soviet Empire, it is past time for this anachronistic policy to end. Europe now has the unrealized economic and political capacity to overmatch a weakened Moscow that can only provoke with economic and informational warfare while accosting weak states along its borders.[1] In the 21st century, the United States Army should accordingly adopt a more dynamic strategy for how it contributes to European security and would join a potential, though improbable, NATO war to defeat Russia.

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From Vancouver to Vladivostok: The 57 OSCE Participating States

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This graphic of the week maps the 57 OSCE participating states and the organization’s 11 partner countries. To find out more about the OSCE, see Christian Nünlist’s CSS Analyses “The OSCE and the Future of European Security” and “The OSCE’s Military Pillar: The Swiss FSC Chairmanship“. For more CSS charts, maps and graphics on defense policy, click here.

Russia’s Approach to the Development of Intermediate-Range Missiles

Image courtesy of Jacob Smith/DVIDS

This article was originally published by the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) on 14 November 2018.

Russia will present the expected withdrawal of the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Elimination Treaty (INF) as a step forcing a military response from Moscow. Even if the Russian Federation were to violate the INF by deploying new cruise missiles with a range greater than 500 km, the U.S. withdrawal from the treaty creates opportunity to blur responsibility. In the event of divided opinions within NATO, Russia’s position in arms control might be stronger vis-à-vis Europe and, indirectly, the United States. Moreover, Russia will continue expansion of its arsenal of ground-launched missiles.

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Fighting Words: The Risks of Loose Talk About a “European Army”

Image courtesy of Rock Cohen/Flickr. (CC BY-SA 2.0)

This article was originally published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) on 20 November 2018.

‘European army’ is an empty phrase; what is actually needed is less talk and more action – more concrete projects to integrate defence efforts while avoiding careless talk.

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