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Transatlantic Intelligence Ties Remain Strong: Insulated against Political Turmoil

Image courtesy of The White House/Flickr.

This article was originally published by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) on 13 August 2019.

Headlines are rife with stories about political turmoil in transatlantic relations, and bitter disputes over trade and defence spending. Yet for the US Intelligence Community, ties with transatlantic partners have remained insulated against political differences. History shows that intelligence relationships follow their own logic.
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Ways Out of the Crisis: Recalibrating European Security

Image courtesy of United Nations Photo/Flickr. (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

This article was originally published by the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIF) on 23 April 2019.

European Security is in crisis. Like every crisis, this one not only has a prior history, it has also been in the offing for quite some time. 2008 marked a first peak, after the Bush administration offered the NATO Membership Action Plan to Georgia and Ukraine: Russia demonstrated in the war with Georgia who sets the tone in the former Soviet Union. A similar pattern emerged in 2014 in the Ukrainian crisis, this time with the EU in charge and Russia reacting even more forcefully. Since then, the crisis has escalated with almost unrestrained momentum. Its most recent expression is the termination of the INF Treaty, which carries with it the acute danger of a new (medium-range) missile crisis on the continent.

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From Cooperation to Confrontation

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This graphic tracks how American opinions of Russia and Russian opinions of the United States have developed over time. To find out more about how these developments influenced Europe’s post-Cold War security architecture, see Christian Nünlist’s chapter in Strategic Trends 2017 here. For more CSS charts, maps and graphics, click here.

Cold War versus Today

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This graphic shows how the USSR compared to the US in terms of population, real GDP per capita (USD), defense spending (in billion USD) and nuclear weapons in the 1980s, as well as how the US compares to Russia in these key areas today. For an analysis of how different interpretations of the recent past still affect West-Russia relations and what is needed to rebuild trust, see Christian Nünlist’s chapter in Strategic Trends 2017 here. For more CSS charts and graphics, click here.

Fighting Words: The Risks of Loose Talk About a “European Army”

Image courtesy of Rock Cohen/Flickr. (CC BY-SA 2.0)

This article was originally published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) on 20 November 2018.

‘European army’ is an empty phrase; what is actually needed is less talk and more action – more concrete projects to integrate defence efforts while avoiding careless talk.

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