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Economy CSS Blog

Economic Weight and MDB Voting Power of Leading States (2019)

This graphic compares the economic weight of the world’s leading States, as well as their voting power in multilateral development banks (MDB). China has widely funded and built infrastructure in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and its own national banks play a key role in financing these large-scale projects. However, China’s policy banks also face problems of corruption, poor lending practices and repayment problems. MDBs, by contrast, tend to have higher standards and can help improve the way China engages abroad and shares the risks with other member countries.

For more on how China’s recent foray into multilateral banking brings the country multiple financial and geopolitical benefits, read Chris Humphrey & Linda Maduz’s CSS Analysis in Security Policy here.

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Cyber CSS Blog

Why Do States Publicly Attribute Cyber Intrusions?

This article was originally published by the Council on Foreign Relations on 14 October 2020.

Despite the increasing number of public attributions, few analysts have looked at how public attribution fits within the larger toolbox of statecraft. In a recently published article, I lay out what public attribution is, how we can explain it using the intelligence studies literature, and for what purposes it is employed (for more, you can also read this longer policy analysis [PDF] on the subject). In this shorter piece, I argue that public attribution serves different functions in the short, medium, and long-term.

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Economy CSS Blog

Assessment of the Financial Situation of Households (2nd quarter of 2019)

This graphic illustrates the financial situation of rural and urban Russian households during the 2nd quarter of 2019. According to surveys on living standards and deprivation, the extent of perceived poverty is worse than the official poverty line suggests.

For more on the extent of poverty in Russia and the government’s policies to combat it, see Russian Analytical Digest 249 on ‘Need-Based Social Policies’. 

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Economy Coronavirus CSS Blog

GDP Growth Forecast for Russia for 2020 and 2021 (% yoy)

 

This graphic breaks down the GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2020 and 2021. Forecasts range from slightly negative values to -6 percent. The drastic economic consequences of the quarantine measures explain why 2020 GDP estimates for Russia are currently extremely divergent.

For more on how Russia is facing the economic crisis posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, see Russian Analytical Digest 251 on ‘Russia and the Covid-19 Pandemic’.

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Arctic CSS Blog

Arctic States and Stakes

This graphic maps the countries located in the Arctic Circle, as well as its passages and sea routes. In the Arctic, Russia and China have their own ambitions, but their objectives currently overlap. Complementary economic interests are the main driver of their cooperation.

For more on the Sino-Russian dynamics in the Arctic, read Maria Shagina and Benno Zogg’s CSS Analysis in Security Policy here.