Categories
Environment Conflict

Are We Radically Underestimating the Effects of Climate on Armed Conflict?

Image courtesy of Wesley Tingey/Unsplash.

This article was orginally published by New security Beat on 3 March 2020.

Climate change is widely recognized as a “threat multiplier.” From the United Nations to the G7 to the US Department of Defense, there is emerging consensus that climate change poses risks to both human and natural security through a variety of complex and interrelated channels. The extent of those risks, and how they connect to armed conflict, however, remain widely debated.

Categories
Conflict

Conflict Is Still Africa’s Biggest Challenge in 2020

Image courtesy AMISOM Public Information/Tobin Jones

This article was originally published by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) on 6 January 2020.

Can African leaders repeat the show of unity achieved on continental free trade to silence the guns?

For the African Union, 2020 is supposed to be a landmark year. Its ‘silencing the guns’ initiative is aimed at ‘ending all wars, civil conflicts, gender-based violence, violent conflicts and preventing genocide in the continent by 2020.’ While no one can argue with that laudable goal, the continental body and its member states will have to work miracles to achieve it by the end of this year – especially when the trend seems to be heading in the other direction.

Categories
Peace

Ceasefires since 1989

Between 1989 and 2018, more than 1,900 ceasefires and related follow-up arrangements were reported in the media, across more than a hundred intra-state armed conflicts around the globe. This graphic provides an overview of these ceasefires regarding their distribution over time and across five continents. To find out more, read the new CSS Analyses in Security Policy, ‘Ceasefires in Intra-state Peace Processes’, here.

Categories
Conflict

Top Conflicts to Watch in 2020: A Crisis between Russia and Ukraine

Image courtesy of OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine/Flickr. (CC BY 2.0)

This article was originally published by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) on 8 January 2020.

This year, a severe crisis between Russia and Ukraine following increased fighting in eastern Ukraine, and/or a major military clash in contested areas, was included as a top tier priority in the Center for Preventive Action’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey.

Categories
International Relations

Iran and the US Avoid War for Now, but Political Sparring Will Continue

Image courtesy of The White House/Flickr.

This article was originally published by the ASPI‘s The Strategist on 9 January 2020.

President Donald Trump’s public response to Iranian missile strikes on two US airbases in Iraq suggests that he and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have reached a mutual ‘no war’ agreement. Barring any miscalculation by either side that triggers military escalation, the confrontation will continue to be played out politically, with the US maintaining its ‘maximum pressure’ campaign that seeks to force regime change through severe economic sanctions. There will be a lot of bruising ahead for Iran, but Trump will not win politically.