A new State on the Horizon

The Times They Are A-Changin. Photo: Rusty Stewart/flickr

Following the breakdown of direct peace talks last autumn, the Palestinian Authority (PA) ruling the West Bank has now come to adopt a new diplomatic strategy: its aim is securing United Nations’ recognition of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital. And chances are that this plan will succeed.

Israel and the United States both oppose such a move, arguing a real solution can only be reached through negotiations. However, if no changes are made between now and September 2011, the UN is almost certain to declare a Palestinian state. And if a state of Palestine is declared, Israel will inevitably be put into the uncomfortable position of being considered an occupier of another UN-member country.

Hardly surprising, therefore, the Palestinian march towards statehood is unnerving both Israel and the United States. As a result they have come out with new peace plans to act as counterweights: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is to travel to Washington next month, where he will present his initiative, has not yet spelled out the content of his plan. However, it is said to include a repositioning of Israeli occupation forces in parts of the West Bank, as well as some improvements of Palestinian daily life. Furthermore, Israel is said to transfer some of the territories classified as Area B and Area C to Palestinian control. But not a single Jewish settlement will be dismantled.

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This Week in ISN Insights…

It's week 18 on our editorial calendar, Photo: Leo Reynolds/flickr

Coming up this week in our ISN Insights coverage:

On Monday, Washington, DC-based intelligence analyst Anna Dunin takes on the thriving business of mercenarism in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Jamestown Foundation’s Roman Muzalevsky analyzes the potential impact of the Arab uprisings on Central Asian authoritarianism, on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, The Graduate Institute’s Paolo Cravero examines Italy’s sagging democracy under the weight of Berlusconi.

Dr Rupakjyoti Borah of Manipal University takes a closer look at India’s thirst for nuclear energy despite the cautionary tale of Fukushima – and how Australia could help quench it, on Thursday.

And in case you missed any of last week’s articles, you can find them here on: Gaddafi’s influence in sub-Saharan Africa; controversy over UNESCO’s declaration that Rachel’s tomb is a mosque; the case for UN reconsideration of the Zimbabwean matter; and a podcast on asylum seekers’ rights and states’ responsibilities to them.

Accountability Process in Sri Lanka Disputed

Sign here and smile for the camera, please. Photo: vikalpasl/flickr

The report of the UN Secretary-General’s panel of experts on accountability in Sri Lanka, published on 31 March 2011, reveals “a very different version of the final stages of the war than that maintained to this day by the Government of Sri Lanka.” The panel findings indicate that serious violations of international humanitarian law and international human rights law were committed by both the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Some of these violations, if proven, “would amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity.” The UN also got its share of criticism, for failing to take action that might have protected civilians during the final stages of the war.

Unsurprisingly, the Sri Lankan Government denounced the report as “fundamentally flawed”. The Ministry of External Affairs alleged that, among other deficiencies, the report was based on biased material and presented without verification. Although it was originally a joint commitment by the UN Secretary-General and the President of Sri Lanka, the government objected to the publication of the report and claimed that it could damage reconciliation efforts between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority in the country. The government is now seeking international and local support as part of an effort to counter the UN panel report and the implementation of its recommendations.

On the other hand, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) – the main political party representing the ethnic minority – welcomed the panel’s recommendations and expressed hopes that they will be implemented.

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The Arab Uprisings and the State of Emergency

Emergency exit
Some declare a state of emergency and others lift it in an attempt to get out of the mess. Photo: v1ctor/flickr

Perversely, it took a state of emergency to have Syria’s 48-year-old emergency rule removed. But although this had been a key demand of the protesters, the move is now seen as too little too late. In many ways, the situation is reminiscent of the events early February, when Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak’s vague promises of reform were only salt in the wounds of the crowds on Tahrir Square.

A state of emergency derives from a governmental declaration in response to an extraordinary situation posing a fundamental threat to the country. Too often, however, dictatorial regimes misuse such rules for self-serving purposes: they introduce unwarranted restrictions on human rights and civil liberties, neutralize political opponents or postpone elections. There has also been a tendency to maintain states of emergency long after the original reason for its proclamation has disappeared. The result is a constitutional dictatorship.

With the turmoil in the Arab world, it’s easy to lose track of where emergency laws still apply. Here’s a brief overview of some of the recent changes:

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This Week in ISN Insights…

It's week 17 on our 2011 editorial calendar, Photo: Leo Reynolds/flickr

With the Easter holiday behind us, ISN Insights returns to our weekday coverage starting today:

  • Tuesday’s article was researched on the ground in Kigali by Jon Rosen, who examines Gaddafi’s legacy as a steadfast patron of sub-Saharan African governments.
  • Dr Shalva Weil of Hebrew University explores the ancient history surrounding the Tomb of Rachel on Wednesday – a site that UNESCO declared a mosque last year, further heightening tensions.
  • On Thursday we welcome an opinion piece about why the UN should reconsider punitive measures against Zimbabwe, by Michael Walsh of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
  • And Susin Park, head of the UNHCR Office for Switzerland and Liechtenstein, discusses the UNHCR’s mandate to safeguard the rights and well-being of asylum seekers and refugees in our Friday podcast.

You can also catch-up on last week’s articles here: on the Libyan ‘test‘ for India’s foreign policy; the growing attraction of more community health workers in the developing world; the power and dangers of Rio’s new Police Pacification Units; and the fiscal policy shenanigans of Europe’s central bankers.