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Economy Coronavirus CSS Blog

GDP Growth Forecast for Russia for 2020 and 2021 (% yoy)

 

This graphic breaks down the GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2020 and 2021. Forecasts range from slightly negative values to -6 percent. The drastic economic consequences of the quarantine measures explain why 2020 GDP estimates for Russia are currently extremely divergent.

For more on how Russia is facing the economic crisis posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, see Russian Analytical Digest 251 on ‘Russia and the Covid-19 Pandemic’.

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Arctic CSS Blog

Arctic States and Stakes

This graphic maps the countries located in the Arctic Circle, as well as its passages and sea routes. In the Arctic, Russia and China have their own ambitions, but their objectives currently overlap. Complementary economic interests are the main driver of their cooperation.

For more on the Sino-Russian dynamics in the Arctic, read Maria Shagina and Benno Zogg’s CSS Analysis in Security Policy here.

Categories
Security Economy

The Larger Implications of the Oil Attacks in Saudi Arabia

Image courtesy of Planet.com. (CC BY-SA 4.0)

This article was originally published by Political Violence @ a Glance on 17 September 2019.

Drone attacks allegedly by Houthi rebels this past weekend on the Abqaiq facility and the Khurais oil field effectively knocked out five million barrels of processed crude oil from the world market. If this number doesn’t sound impressive, it amounts to about 5% of the world’s energy supply. Although the Iranian-supported Houthi rebels have been targeting Saudi Arabia in retaliation for their participation in the civil war in Yemen, this attack is different. Knocking out this critical facility will potentially cause prices to rise significantly for almost every commodity due to the reduction of global energy supplies. Since energy influences the price of transportation, which in turn influences the price of food and other commodities, this may cause prices of goods and services of all types to rise globally. Recent estimates suggest that the price of oil may rise from $60 to over $100 per barrel. That is an enormous shock that will be felt worldwide.

Categories
Energy CSS Blog

Oil Market 2012-2017

This graphic maps key indicators of the oil market in between 2012 – 2017. For more information on which trends will shape the oil market, check out this CSS analysis by Severin Fischer. For more graphics on natural resources, check out the CSS’ collection of graphs and charts on the subject here.

Categories
Security Environment

Today’s Energy Security Risks: Complacency, Uncertainty, and Ideology

Burning Oil Well. Image: LCpl. Dick Kotecki/Wikimedia

This article was originally published by the Atlantic Council on 3 December, 2015.

At the 2015 Atlantic Council Energy and Economic Summit in Istanbul, twenty-one Ministers and senior officials from Europe, Asia, North America, and the Middle East met to assess the changing geopolitics of energy security. The assembly was a reminder that energy security — the ability of a nation to secure affordable, reliable, and sustainable supplies to maintain national power — is very different for each nation.

It was clear that advances in technology — in oil and gas, and renewables — have changed the geopolitics of energy dramatically, and mostly for the better, from the world of 2008 or even 2011. We have moved from an era of resource scarcity to abundance, from a concentration of resources to ubiquity of access, and from monopoly power in oil and gas to gas on gas competition in Europe. There is now a clear de-linkage of oil and gas pricing, more hub pricing and a growing spot market in LNG. Floating LNG and containerized shipping are enabling lower cost and quicker access of nations to gas, helping them move away from coal.  US shale, with huge resources, low extraction costs, and rapid drilling times may help put a ceiling on the price of oil.  Changes in wind, solar, and energy efficiency technology have driven down the cost of renewables in many countries, making them cost competitive with coal or gas in many cases.