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ISN Weekly Theme: Nigeria Navigates Turbulent Times

Niger Delta picture from space
The Niger Delta from space, north is to the left

Africa’s most populous country is staring down scrutiny from outside and political turmoil – not to mention fractious intra-state conflict – from within. Now the question remains: Can this fragile, young democracy turn turbulence into triumph?

This Special Report contains the following content:

  • An Analysis by Center for Security Studies’ senior researcher Jennifer Giroux examines the rocky political terrain acting President Goodluck Jonathan must navigate – and the tremendous opportunities he holds to help put this young democracy on a path to peace.
  • A Podcast interview with activist Annkio Briggs explores the troubled history of, and lack of development in, the Niger Delta region.
  • Security Watch stories about Nigeria’s troubled political leadership, sectarian violence, illicit arms trade and much more.
  • Publications housed in our Digital Library, including a US Army War College paper that examines whether oil exports fuel defense spending, while another analysis asks whether Nigeria provides a prime example of the ‘resource curse.’
  • Primary Resources, like Nigerian National Planning Commission reports on topics ranging from the Niger Delta to foreign policy.
  • Links to relevant websites, like MEND’s official web platform and National Geographic’s insight into the impact of Nigerian oil on society and security.
  • Our IR Directory with relevant organizations, including the Lagos-based Nigerian Institute of International Affairs and the Africa Strategic and Peace Research Group.

ISN Weekly Theme: Critical Infrastructure Protection

Oil Pumping Station in Alaska, photo: Mike Smail/flickr

This week the ISN takes a closer look at the fluid, expanding threat to those assets which are essential to the proper functioning of society and economy. Governments are finding that answers to the question of how best to protect this ‘critical infrastructure,’ ranging from telecommunications to transportation systems, remain elusive.

The Special Report contains the following content:

  • An Analysis by Dr Myriam Dunn Cavelty of the ETH Center for Security Studies examines a dual challenge facing governments: how best to protect critical infrastructure from attack and how to most quickly rebound following an inevitable attack.
  • A Podcast interview with researcher Jennifer Giroux explores the blurring of lines between political and criminal intent in pipeline attacks.
  • Security Watch stories about cybersecurity threats from Washington to Estonia.
  • Publications housed in our Digital Library, including a recent Center for Security Studies’ paper on the challenges of public-private cooperation for critical infrastructure protection.
  • Primary Resources, like the full text of the US Department for Homeland Security’s ‘National Infrastructure Protection Plan.’
  • Links to relevant websites, among them the Critical Infrastructure Protection Blog, which provides extensive information on CIP programs in the US and Europe.
  • Our IR Directory with relevant organizations, including the Center for Secure Information Systems at George Mason University that examines information secrecy, integrity and availability problems in military, civil and commercial sectors.

Guns for…Guns?

A serene sunset in a war-ravaged Niger Delta / Photo: Sigma Delta, flickr
A serene sunset in a war-ravaged Niger Delta / Photo: Sigma Delta, flickr

To say the new Nigerian guns-for-amnesty plan faces “difficulties” is, well, understated at best. Some observers see it as a full-on theater of the absurd.

The ill-conceived peace plan was designed to bring militants out of the Niger Delta swamps to hand over their weapons in exchange for a daily stipend lasting a couple months. Unfortunately, harsh reality is already steering far from lofty conception: Not only are the anti-government militias not lining-up to make peace, but some experts say that common criminals are actually expected to capitalize on the deal.

“The money realized will be used to rearm,” Anyakwee Nsirimovu, chairman of the Niger Delta Civil Society Coalition told the NY Times. “Criminals who claim to be militants will come forward and take the amnesty, and that will be delaying doomsday […].”

It’s not just that $13 a day for 60 days doesn’t sound like much of a deal to the battle weary militants; it’s that they’re fighting for something more fundamental. For years, these guerrilla warriors have battled injustice, squalor and poverty for their share of the Niger Delta’s vast oil wealth. Experts agree that without a real redress of the local population’s grievances, fighting will continue.

“As long as the equity situation is not solved, you will continue to have people who will blow up pipelines,” Nsirimovu concluded.

Categories
Business and Finance

The Politics of Oil Prices, the Price of Oil Politics

US$147/B One Year On: Political Winners and Strategic Losers
US$147/B One Year On: Political Winners and Strategic Losers

In 2009, the oil price fell sharply after a five-year honeymoon. You’d have expected it to take a number of political casualties with it. In a new analysis by the Center for Security Studies (CSS), Matthew Hulbert explains why it’s not been the case. Looking forward, he thinks that consumers will pretty likely face another price crunch as investment lags and demand rises. But he concludes with a warning to Russia, Venezuela and co:

“Some producers will no doubt see this as a ‘strategic victory’: but unless they have learned the lessons of 2008/9 to diversify their economic bases beyond narrow resource wealth, once the next bubble bursts, they will no doubt need to batten down the political hatches once more.”

Matthew is the CSS’s energy expert; he used to work in the City of London, advising on energy markets and political risk.

The paper is available for download here.