Emilie Boillat

Electoral Geography

Screenshot from Electoral Geography 2.0
Screenshot from Electoral Geography 2.0

Ever since my first hiking holiday, I’ve been a big fan of maps! So I was thrilled to discover the website Electoral Geography 2.0. It gathers election and voting data from all over the world and illustrates most of it with maps.

For example, check out the results of last weekend’s elections in Bulgaria or Mexico. International media usually reports on overall national results. But I like comparing regional patterns, since these are often very telling about ethnic and social cleavages. Electoral Geography 2.0 also provides election results from previous years, which also make for interesting comparisons.

According to the authors of the website, electoral geography is the study of regularities and patterns of election results. They don’t provide original analysis (yet?), but they do have a page listing a few good papers and articles on the topic.

The Ambiguities of Nuclear Power

The New Appeal of Nuclear Energy and the Dangers of Proliferation
The New Appeal of Nuclear Energy and the Dangers of Proliferation

Every country has a right to the peaceful use of nuclear power. Some even argue that this ‘clean-burning’ fuel could be the CO2 emissions cure-all.

But how to keep states from using these plants to disguise weapons programs?

And how to tackle the risk of nuclear terrorism?

In a new CSS Analysis, Olivier Thränert provides an overview of current efforts and debates to address this nuclear power conundrum.

 

 

Dr Thränert is an expert on the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin.

You can download his paper here.

Categories
Business and Finance

The Politics of Oil Prices, the Price of Oil Politics

US$147/B One Year On: Political Winners and Strategic Losers
US$147/B One Year On: Political Winners and Strategic Losers

In 2009, the oil price fell sharply after a five-year honeymoon. You’d have expected it to take a number of political casualties with it. In a new analysis by the Center for Security Studies (CSS), Matthew Hulbert explains why it’s not been the case. Looking forward, he thinks that consumers will pretty likely face another price crunch as investment lags and demand rises. But he concludes with a warning to Russia, Venezuela and co:

“Some producers will no doubt see this as a ‘strategic victory’: but unless they have learned the lessons of 2008/9 to diversify their economic bases beyond narrow resource wealth, once the next bubble bursts, they will no doubt need to batten down the political hatches once more.”

Matthew is the CSS’s energy expert; he used to work in the City of London, advising on energy markets and political risk.

The paper is available for download here.

ISN Weekly Theme: Nagorno-Karabakh

Landmines in Suarassy, Kashatagh Region, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh, courtesy of Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2006
Landmines in Suarassy, Kashatagh Region, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh, courtesy of Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2006

This week, the ISN focuses on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over this de facto independent territory has been running since the break-up of the Soviet Union. Mediation efforts by the ‘Minsk Group’, a group of OSCE member states, haven’t brought any substantial success. Some even argue that they’ve been counterproductive.

As other disputes stuck in a ‘no peace, no war’ situation for so long, Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to the ‘frozen conflicts’ species. But the dramatic meltdown of the South Ossetia conflict last summer showed that frozen conflicts should be taken very seriously indeed.

You might also want to check our resources on the whole Caucasus region or on mediation in peace processes in general.

The Wild Wild South

Cover of Courrier International No 970
Cover of Courrier International No 970

Now, that’s a change. Europe has been Africa’s Eldorado for years, but it looks as if the reverse is now true, too.

Among the countless ‘boat people’ and ‘fortress Europe’ headlines, two articles caught my eye. In the same issue, Courrier International reports about Portuguese immigrants in Angola (pay site) and it reproduces a Wall Street Journal piece on French people with North African roots emigrating to Morocco.

The paper says that about 100,000 Portuguese live in Angola at the moment. They get better career opportunities there than back home, especially with the oil economy booming. That figure is pretty impressive when you think that the Angolan civil war only just ended in 2002.

At the same time, something similar is happening between France and Morocco. Many young educated French-born people with Moroccan roots  decide to migrate to the country of their parents or grandparents. They have access to better jobs and social recognition in Morocco. Life is still pretty difficult for people with an Arab name in France.

Continue reading “The Wild Wild South”