Tag: NATO

Preparing for “NATO-mation”: The Atlantic Alliance toward the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Image courtesy of U.S. Department of Energy/Flickr.

This article was originally published by the NATO Defense College (NDC) in February 2019.

The unprecedented pace of technological change brought about by the fourth Industrial Revolution offers enormous opportunities but also entails some risks. This is evident when looking at discussions about artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and big data (BD). Many analysts, scholars and policymakers are in fact worried that, beside efficiency and new economic opportunities, these technologies may also promote international instability: for instance, by leading to a swift redistribution of wealth around the world; a rapid diffusion of military capabilities or by heightening the risks of military escalation and conflict. Such concerns are understandable. Throughout history, technological change has at times exerted similar effects. Additionally, human beings seem to have an innate fear that autonomous machines might, at some point, revolt and threaten humanity – as illustrated in popular culture, from Hebrew tradition’s Golem to Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein, from Karel Čapek’s Robot to Isaac Asimov’s I, Robot and the movie Terminator.

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NATO’s Nuclear Deterrence: More Important, Yet More Contested

Image courtesy of NATO/Flickr. (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

This article was originally published by the NATO Defense College in February 2019.

A more competitive international environment, and in particular Russia’s assertive policies, have sparked renewed interest in the concept of nuclear deterrence as part of NATO’s approach to security. This has manifested itself in devoting greater attention to Russia’s nuclear policy and posture as well as to NATO’s own nuclear arrangements, and in a stronger emphasis on nuclear deterrence in public statements. However, this renaissance of nuclear deterrence takes place against the backdrop of new developments that seek to challenge the military rationale and moral legitimacy of that very concept. Put differently, just as nuclear deterrence is again becoming more important, it is also becoming more contested.

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The Framework Nations Concept

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This graphic features NATO’s Framework Nations Concept to highlight the trend of regionalization within NATO. For more on the internal challenges NATO faces, see Martin Zapfe’s chapter in Strategic Trends 2017 here. For more CSS charts and graphics, click here.

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The European Army Alphabet Soup

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This graphic provides the reader with a helpful guide to navigating the different institutions and initiatives involved in the debate surrounding the possibility of creating a European Army. For an in-depth analysis of how Brexit could affect European defense, see Dan Keohane’s chapter in Strategic Trends 2017 here. For more CSS charts and graphics, click here.

Russia’s Approach to the Development of Intermediate-Range Missiles

Image courtesy of Jacob Smith/DVIDS

This article was originally published by the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) on 14 November 2018.

Russia will present the expected withdrawal of the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Elimination Treaty (INF) as a step forcing a military response from Moscow. Even if the Russian Federation were to violate the INF by deploying new cruise missiles with a range greater than 500 km, the U.S. withdrawal from the treaty creates opportunity to blur responsibility. In the event of divided opinions within NATO, Russia’s position in arms control might be stronger vis-à-vis Europe and, indirectly, the United States. Moreover, Russia will continue expansion of its arsenal of ground-launched missiles.

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