Month: August 2019

American Credibility is Dangerously Low: Just Not for the Reasons You May Think

Image courtesy of Joshua Hoehne/Unsplash.

This article was originally published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) on 31 July 2019.

In the field of international relations, a nation’s credibility is often thought to be calculated by evaluating its historical record of following through on threats of punishment issued to adversaries. In contrast, today, the larger challenge to U.S. global credibility arises not from questions about its ability to inflict pain on rivals, but rather from the demonstrated failure of U.S. policymakers to make good on incentives promised to rivals in exchange for constructive changes in their behaviors.

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Sanctions: The New Economic Battlefield

Image courtesy of Vladimir Solomyani/Unsplash

This article was originally published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) on 6 August 2019.

Economic warfare is being fought with an intensity not seen since the period leading up to World War II as countries deploy tariffs, embargoes and economic sanctions to force policy changes or punish their adversaries.

Free trade is coming off second best, and global trade has stalled. There’s been no growth in trade volumes since late 2017, contributing to a slowing world economy.

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External Relations of the EAEU

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This week’s graphic maps the external relations of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This includes states that have an observer status in the organization, who are members of the Eurasian Bank of Development, have a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EAEU, and more. For an analysis of the EAEU’s role in Russia’s Eurasian strategy, read Jeronim Perović’s chapter for Strategic Trends 2019 here.

Measles, Ukraine, and Civil War: The Missing Links

Image courtesy of UN Ukraine/Flickr. (CC BY 2.0)

This article was originally published by Political Violence @ a Glance on 22 July 2019. 

In 2018, the global measles outbreak claimed 109,000 lives and sickened 200,000 more across 126 countries. And the outbreak does not appear to be abating. Outbreaks in Europe and the US have been traced to Ukraine, where the spread of measles is generally attributed to an ongoing civil war. But the specific mechanisms connecting civil war and disease outbreak are unclear in this case.

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US-China Trade War: Why the EU Should Take Sides and Favour the Rules-based Order

This article was originally published by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) on 22 July 2019.

The recent G20 summit in Osaka in June failed to deliver a breakthrough in the growing US-China rivalry over trade and technological supremacy. Like the rest of the world, Europe is feeling the heat of the trade war US President Donald Trump unleashed against China. As a resolution of this tug-of-war is not in sight, the EU’s new leadership should start preparing a comprehensive response.

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