Obama’s Nuclear Agenda: The Next Four Years

Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev at the Nuclear Security Summit 2010. Photo: www.kremlin.ru

At a recent international conference on nonproliferation and disarmament, a colleague asked, somewhat irreverently (but not irrelevantly), “Now that Obama has been re-elected, will he finally earn his Nobel Prize?” It’s a fair question.

Hopes were high within the international disarmament community after President Obama’s 2009 Prague speech when he pledged to move toward a nuclear weapons-free world. But those who cheered the loudest then are among the most disappointed now, frustrated over the slow progress toward this goal.

To be fair, there were a few other challenges on his plate: an economy and financial system in disarray; two messy, unfinished wars in Afghanistan and Iraq; the United States’ international authority at a record low; an increasingly polarized and politicized domestic scene; other pressing priorities (universal health care being not the least); and more.

Frustrations over the ICC and Justice in Palestine

Mahmoud Abbas, President of the National Palestinian Authority, delivers an application for full Palestinian membership in the United Nations to Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Photo: UN Photo/Paulo Filgueiras

It came as no big surprise that the United Nations General Assembly voted to upgrade Palestine to non-member observer status. But, reflecting the reality that international criminal justice now goes to the very heart of Middle East politics, many are left wondering whether Palestine will join the International Criminal Court and request (once again) that the ICC investigate its conflict with Israel. Pondering this issue has left me deeply frustrated.

While it may not be wise to box oneself into a particular moral outlook, I consider myself to be a liberal cosmopolitan. Very briefly, that means that I believe in a politics where all human beings share fundamental individual rights and that when those rights are blatantly violated we, as a global community, have some obligations to respond. This political ethos, I believe, is also what guides most proponents of the ICC, not to mention other liberal cosmopolitan projects such as the Responsibility to Protect.

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روسيا وتطلعاتها الأوروبية

EU-Russia Summit in 2011
EU-Russia Summit, Nizhny Novgorod, 9 and 10 June 2011. Photo: President of the European Council/flickr.

موسكو ــ في عام 1966، كانت رؤية شارل ديجول لأوروبا “التي تمتد من المحيط الأطلسي إلى جبال الأورال” استفزازية. واليوم يطرح الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتن هدفاً أكثر طموحا: “إقامة سوق مشتركة تمتد من المحيط الأطلسي إلى المحيط الهادئ”.

في السباق نحو العولمة، أصبحت المخاطر كبيرة بالنسبة لكل من روسيا وأوروبا. وإذا استمرت روسيا على مسارها الحالي نحو التحول إلى منتج للمواد الخام فقط، فإنها لن تصبح عُرضة لتقلبات أسعار الطاقة العالمية فحسب، بل إن إمكاناتها العلمية والثقافية والتعليمية سوف تضمحل، وهو ما من شأنه أن يجرد البلاد في نهاية المطاف من نفوذها العالمي.

وإذا فشلت أوروبا من جانبها في الاستجابة لتحديات القرن الحادي والعشرين، فسوف تواجه ركوداً اقتصادياً مزمنا، وتوترات اجتماعية متزايدة، وعدم استقرار سياسي. بل إن أوروبا مهدده بخسارة مكانتها في الأسواق الدولية الأكثر جاذبية، مع هجرة الإنتاج الصناعي إلى شرق آسيا وبقاء الإبداع في أميركا الشمالية. ونتيجة لهذا فإن المشروع الأوروبي ذاته قد يصبح موضع تساؤل.

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Las perspectivas europeas de Rusia

EU-Russia Summit in 2011
EU-Russia Summit, Nizhny Novgorod, 9 and 10 June 2011. Photo: President of the European Council/flickr.

MOSCÚ – En 1966, la visión de Charles de Gaulle de una Europa “que se extienda desde el Atlántico hasta los Urales” era provocativa. Hoy en día, el presidente ruso Vladimir Putin ha avanzado un objetivo aún más ambicioso: “un mercado común que se extiende desde el Atlántico hasta el Pacífico”

En la carrera hacia la globalización, las apuestas son altas, tanto para Rusia y Europa. Si Rusia continúa en su curso actual, dirigiéndose a ser exclusivamente un productor de materias prima, no sólo va a ser cada vez más vulnerable a las fluctuaciones de los precios mundiales de la energía, pero su potencial científico, cultural y educativo se deteriorará aún más, y con el tiempo despojará al país de su influencia mundial.

Si Europa, por su parte, no responde a los retos del siglo XXI, se enfrentará a un estancamiento económico crónico, a un aumento de la tensión social y a inestabilidad política. De hecho, la producción industrial se traslada hacia el este de Asia y la innovación continúa ubicada en América del Norte; y, Europa corre el riesgo de perder su posición en los mercados internacionales más atractivos. Como resultado, el proyecto europeo en sí podría ser puesto en duda.

Russia’s European Prospects

EU-Russia Summit in 2011
EU-Russia Summit, Nizhny Novgorod, 9 and 10 June 2011. Photo: President of the European Council/flickr.

MOSCOW – In 1966, Charles de Gaulle’s vision of a Europe “that stretched from the Atlantic to the Urals” was provocative. Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin has advanced an even more ambitious goal: “a common market stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific.”

In the race toward globalization, the stakes are high for both Russia and Europe. If Russia continues on its current path toward becoming solely a raw-materials producer, it will not only become increasingly vulnerable to global energy-price fluctuations, but its scientific, cultural, and educational potential will decay further, eventually stripping the country of its global clout.

If Europe, for its part, fails to respond to the challenges of the twenty-first century, it will face chronic economic stagnation, rising social tension, and political instability. Indeed, as industrial production migrates to East Asia and innovation remains in North America, Europe risks losing its position in the most attractive international markets. As a result, the European project itself could be called into question.