Month: October 2010

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Keyword in Focus

Keywords in Focus: IMF and World Bank Group

A Chinese one Yuan bill
A Chinese one Yuan bill, courtesy of upton/flickr

This weekend, the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group take place with a focus on the world economic outlook, poverty eradication, economic development and aid effectiveness. The meetings are convened in a situation of escalating disputes about the sustainability of the international monetary system and fears of a coming currency devaluation war.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the director of the IMF, warns that the willingness to use currencies as a political weapon is growing in a short-sighted attempt to boost a nation’s economy, better known as “beggar thy neighbor” policy. Primarily China with its policy of keeping the Yuan artificially cheap vis-à-vis the dollar and the euro is seen as the main trigger of the current situation. But also the US policy of keeping interest rates at a long-time low adds to long-standing imbalances of the international monetary system.

It will be interesting to see whether the IMF and the World Bank, both cornerstones of the Bretton Woods system and as such deeply interwoven with the shaken monetary system, can facilitate the adaption to the changing realities not only in the realm of monetary economics.

Explore our content holdings on the IMF and the World Bank Group, today’s keywords in focus. Some highlights include:

  • A Chatham House paper on rethinking the international monetary system
  • A CIS paper on the impact of World Bank and IMF programs on democratization in developing countries
  • A PISM paper on the IMF’s review of its anti-crisis package
  • A CEPR paper on the IMF’s support package for Greece
  • A CGD paper on a new World Bank financing model for emerging economies
  • A CGD paper on the World Bank’s black box allocation system

ISN Junior Associates Event Today

Young minds get together at the ISN, October 2010

ISN Junior Associates, a group of ambitious, Swiss-based young professionals and advanced degree students will get together today to listen to a series of  talks at the inaugural Junior Associates event, and to brainstorm on new avenues of thought and debate under this year’s thematic umbrella. The idea is to engage fresh young minds in an issue that is hugely consequential already and is only likely to become more so in the future; a key fault line in world politics: the relationship between European countries and the wider Islamic world.

In addition to examining more traditional foreign policy-related topics, such as Swiss and European foreign policy in the Middle East, our distinguished speakers will examine issues as varied as Indonesian bilateral relations with Switzerland, economic prospects between Switzerland and the Middle East, cultural and religious coexistence between Muslims and Europeans, as well as the importance of education and the challenge of integration for European Muslims.

From a wide variety of perspectives, and with a little enthusiasm and fresh thoughts thrown in for good measure, we hope to come to new and interesting conclusions about how this vital relationship can be maintained and steered toward a more constructive course.

The program will continue after the event with collaborative work, undertaken by the Junior Associates on an online platform, with the aim of producing new, innovative research on a wide variety of topics related to this theme. What would you, dear reader, like to see covered? What do you see as the most interesting aspects of the relationship between Europe and the Islamic world?

For a participant list and further information on the program, please go to the ISN Junior Associates page.

We will post pictures and impressions of the event in the coming weeks on the ISN blog. Stay tuned for more.

Fishing in a Sea of Malice

Headless policies, toothless laws, photo: dailyjoe/flickr

In the very year the International Maritime Organization (IMO) designated “Year of the Seafarer”, a new report, published by the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF), has now exposed how illegal, ‘pirate’ fishing operators are ruthlessly exploiting not only the riches of the sea, but also the crews aboard the fishing vessels.

Pirate fishing – less prosaically known as illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing – is one of the most serious threats to the future of world fishery. Occurring in virtually all fishing grounds from shallow coastal waters to deep oceans, and driven by an enormous global demand for fish and seafood, pirate fishing is leaving coastal communities in developing countries without much needed food and income and the marine environment debilitated and empty.

IUU fishing is an organized criminal activity, professionally coordinated and truly global, respecting neither national boundaries nor international attempts to manage the seas’ resources. It thrives where governance is weak and where countries fail to meet their international responsibilities. According to the EJF and Greenpeace, it is thus not surprising that most illegal fishing is carried out by ships flying so-called ‘flags of convenience’.

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OSINT Report 3/2010

OSINT Report 3/2010

In our third OSINT Report, Florian Schaurer and Jan Störger write about ‘The Evolution of Open Source Intelligence’.

The authors provide an overview on the emergence of OSINT as a special discipline during WWII and its growing importance as an essential part of modern intelligence tradecraft.

Drawing on tentative conclusions, implications for national security and current challenges are also discussed. The authors argue that intelligence must primarily serve national security, a public good, which can, however, not be addressed efficiently either by the state, or by the public alone. New threat situations require an increased awareness of the information distributed in the public realm and an inclusion of experts from beyond the government’s walls.

A Presidential Problem

Egyptian Presidential Palace, photo: Thomas/Picasa

Egypt is at a crossroads. Over thirty years since its political system was last tested – when President Anwar Sadat was assassinated and the little known Hosni Mubarak was thrust into office – the country is facing what, from some angles, might resemble a contest.

There is ample reason to believe that the September 2011 Presidential election will be different to the 2005 vote – when the opposition failed to live up to pre-election hype and, almost without exception, failed to dent the regime’s grip on power. This time there is one crucial difference – the state of the incumbent.

The revelations in the US press in July that outline the Hosni Mubarak’s alleged failing health, along with the unofficial propaganda campaign launched in recent weeks on behalf of Gamal (the President’s oldest son) seem to imply that a transfer of power is planned for next year’s election. However, recent events have challenged western assumptions that a dynastic succession is inevitable.

Local and international media have understandably focused on the campaign of Dr Mohammed ElBaradei, the Nobel Laureate and former head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, whose international profile has enabled him to harness public support and insulated him from the regime’s traditional means of oppression. Yet there is little evidence to suggest that ElBaradei will be able to translate the torrent of publicity into a movement capable of breaking through Egypt’s prohibitive election laws and competing for the presidency.

Alongside internal criticism of his own performance, ElBaradei has suffered from the perennial problem of uniting the opposition parties. This was brutally emphasized last week when the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s only true political opposition, rejected his plan to make a public show of strength by calling for a boycott of November’s parliamentary elections. While the group has helped ElBaradei raise close to a million signatures for his appeal against the regime, there are few countries who have democratized by petition.

The inevitably undemocratic nature of the election process means that internal opposition is likely to pose the greatest threat to the Mubarak dynasty. For this reason, serious attention should be paid to the recent launch of an anonymous poster campaign backing Egyptian Intelligence Chief General Omar Suleiman for the presidency, which saw the regime respond aggressively by forcing newspapers to destroy 30,000 late editions running the story.

These events expose the very real tensions that exist within the ruling National Democratic Party between the military establishment and the wealthy business elite over the father-son succession. The old guard’s wariness is driven by a desire to maintain the status quo (and the foreign aid that comes with it.) They focus on Gamal’s lack of military ties (he would be the first president without military experience,) his support of economic liberalization, and the challenge to law and order from increasing public opposition to succession.

This is where the real struggle for power will lie if Mubarak senior does not pursue another term in office.

Continue reading “A Presidential Problem”