Tag: Ukraine

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Regional Stability

Frozen Donbas?

A Soviet-era monument in the city of Donetsk. Image: Andrew Butko/Wikimedia

This article was originally published by the Carnegie Moscow Center on 17 November 2014.

Russia is invading Ukraine, again. As usual, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has refuted hard evidence from journalists and international observers. Both NATO and the OSCE have confirmed that heavy weaponry and combat troops are moving to Donbas from Russia. A detailed look suggests that although the ceasefire has been seriously violated (again), what we see is mostly a tactical operation aimed at reinforcing rebel positions, not preparation for a full-fledged war.

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Prepare Yourself for Security Jam 2014!

2014 Security Jam

The ISN is proud to be a partner of Security Jam 2014, a global online brainstorming session which the Security and Defense Agenda (SDA) will co-host with IBM from 14-16 October 2014. Over the course of 54 hours and across 6 discussion forums, thousands of experts will discuss and then propose concrete solutions to a variety of security-related problems. Subsequent to the online session, the Jam’s top 10 recommendations will then serve as the foundation of a report that will be presented to the new leaders of NATO and the EU, and distributed to thousands of policymakers and decision-makers worldwide.

Since anyone can participate in Security Jam, we welcome you to register for free and share your ideas on key security and defense issues with leading experts. And in order to help you prepare for the discussion, we’ve put together a special dossier collection, which features background materials that relate directly to each of the six Security Jam forums. (You can, by the way, also create your own specifically tailored multimedia collection using the over 80,000 items currently available in the ISN Digital Library. To find out more click here.)

1) The New Global Balance

The first Security Jam forum will feature a broad discussion on the future of the global order and international security. Some of the questions that will be discussed include the following: What does the US pivot towards Asia and declining Western influence mean for emerging powers such as Russia, China, India or Turkey, especially in economic, diplomatic, and security terms? How will the massive discrepancies in worldwide defense spending impact the “new global balance”? Which challenges and new threats should strategic planners take into account and what military and civilian capabilities are required to counter these threats?

2) The EU as a Global Security Broker

The second forum will focus on the role of the European Union as a global security actor and provider. More specifically, the Jamparticipants will discuss a) how the EU can and should enhance its global status and credibility, b) whether EU members states can agree on a common security and foreign policy vision, and c) what lessons should be drawn from previous and current EU efforts to promote security and development.

3) NATO’s Role 2025

As the ISAF mission in Afghanistan continues to wind down, what will the future of transatlantic security cooperation look like? Can and should NATO remain a military-centered alliance? Will other countries join NATO in light of renewed tensions with Russia? How should NATO and the EU cooperate in the future? Answering these questions and others will be the focus of the third Security Jam forum.

4) Cybersecurity and Cyberdefense

The fourth forum will explore future cyber threats and the ways to counter them. Some of the questions that will be discussed include the following: How can governments, international organizations and private companies enhance their technical and strategic cyber defense capabilities? Should NATO and the EU take an offensive approach towards cyber security? How does cyber security affect privacy and data protection? Can international rules in this domain be established and enforced?

5) Case-Study – Ukraine and Russia

Given the troubled relations Western states are currently experiencing with Russia, how should NATO, the OSCE, the European Union and the United States engage with Moscow, specifically in order to avoid further tensions and possible conflict? Could the recent crisis have been foreseen and avoided? How are domestic politics continuing to influence Russia’s behavior? These questions and many more will be up for discussion during the fifth Security Jam forum.

6) Case-Study – Syria

Finally, the sixth Jamforum will focus on the complex internal conflict in Syria and its impact on global security. At a minimum, how should regional and global powers deal with the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)? How can the humanitarian consequences of the conflict be alleviated? What are the spill-over effects for the region? How can European countries prepare for the return of Jihadist foreign fighters? Ect.

In closing, we hope the above materials are of interest and helpful to you and that they will spur you to participate in Security Jam 2014. It is a golden opportunity for you to participate in an important dialogue and have your voice heard.

New World Disorder – How We Got Here

Image: Mstyslav Chernov/Wikimedia

This article was originally published by NewPopulationBomb on 29 July 2014.

The world is in extraordinary turmoil — a violent Islamic Caliphate overturning the borders of Syria and Iraq; a war in Europe pitting Russia and pro-Russian rebels against the new regime in Ukraine; Israel invading Gaza and trading rocket exchanges with Hamas; Egypt, Libya and Yemen disrupted by the Arab uprisings; confrontations among Japan, China, Vietnam and the Philippines in the South and East China Seas; and gang wars in Central America driving thousands of young families and children across borders. Worse yet, Europe is caught up in its own internal squabbles, leaving the U.S. without the full support of its most powerful and reliable allies in dealing with these crises.

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The Ukraine Crisis and the Issue of National Minorities

Pro-Russian Meeting, courtesy of Lystopad

This article was originally published by Security and Human Rights.

National minorities are a political and social fact in Europe and many other parts of the world. In Europe, the issue of national minorities became particularly acute after the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1918 as well as more recently after the breakup of the former Yugoslavia and the collapse of the Soviet Union at the beginning of the 1990s. The newly created independent states became hosts to national minorities: for example, the Baltic States and Ukraine to a Russian minority, Romania to a Hungarian minority, Croatia to a Serb minority and vice versa, just to name a few.

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Categories
Regional Stability

Will the Dragon Follow the Bear?

 

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

This article was originally published by Atlantic-community.org on 26 May 2014

By avoiding blatant aggression, Putin’s ostensibly deniable tactics use Europe’s rules-based interconnected international system against it, even as he circumvents Russia’s own treaty commitments to Ukraine. But perhaps the longer term threat is not that a declining Russia’s actions will go unpunished, but that as with Germany, Italy and Japan in the 1930s, states who are also dissatisfied with their neighborhood’s geopolitical status quo will copy the Kremlin’s lead.

The non-invasion invasion of Ukrainian territory by little green men, or “self-defense groups” as President Putin calls them, has been a masterful demonstration of Russian asymmetric warfare, electronic disinformation and lawfare techniques. Alarm is now heard that if Russian attempts to undermine Ukrainian territorial integrity are successful it will feed Moscow’s appetite for more. But while the attention of the world is riveted on the Kremlin, what about other regional powers? If a great power conflict can be avoided (as in Ukraine so far), would another state emulate Russia’s behavior in the future?

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