Tag: Politician

Gaddafi: Deluded Until the End

Deposed Col. Muammar Gaddafi. Photo:Mr_CRO/flickr

The Rebels are almost victorious, but Darth Gaddafi has missed his chance at a final-scene reconciliation

The world media is abuzz: the Libyan conflict is almost over.   And the international community hasn’t been so united behind a ‘rebel’ victory since the fall of the Galactic Empire in Return of the Jedi.  Nevertheless, while fireworks will surely rain over Tripoli this week, much like the final scenes of the classic 1980 film, Libyan citizens are unlikely to receive the same sense of closure as Han, Luke and Leia.

As the conclusion to the ordeal plays itself out, Darth Gaddafi has failed to demonstrate to the audience that there was a little ‘good’ in him after all. It appears that there will be no final conciliation scene where he poetically realizes the error of his ways and cleanses his tortured soul. Faced with defeat and presumably hidden somewhere in Tripoli, he has remained  defiant. He has refused to acknowledge the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, and their arrest warrant against him for crimes against humanity. He has continued to categorically deny the atrocities committed by the armed forces under his command.  And he has consistently remained deluded as to the will of the Libyan people.

Rather than admit the evil of his ways, he has retained an Idi Amin-like stubbornness to the bitter end – announcing once again last night that he will fight until ‘martyrdom or victory’. While he remains hidden, he remains free. And therefore closure will not be possible for the Libyan people just yet – at least not until he is captured and forced to accept the consequences of his crimes.

The -isms of American Foreign Policy

Looking in Different Directions? photo: Arthur Chapman/flickr

To understand the United States’ role in the world, familiarity with the various frames that decision makers in Washington rely on when formulating foreign policy is helpful. Most statecraft blends these, kind of like a color wheel. The basic contours, however, personified by four giants of American history, are as follows:

The Extroverts

Hamiltonianism maintains that the US should pursue a realist foreign policy, balancing interests, especially material ones, and fundamentally seeks to promote an expansionist agenda. Hamiltonians support a robust national security establishment, a strong dollar policy and a muscular industrial base; in effect the US from WWI to the Great Recession. Domestically, these are the establishment Republicans exemplified by figures such as father George H. W. Bush.

Wilsonianism also subscribes to the furtherance of the Pax Americana. But whereas Hamiltonians favor material interests, Wilsonians emphasize the normative, touchy-feely moral aspects of foreign policymaking. Wilsonians are frequently labeled idealists, like to set up international institutions, are bleeding-heart humanitarian interventionists, prefer to co-opt other states rather than impose their will on them, and ultimately seek to consolidate a global society defined by liberal American values.

Continue reading “The -isms of American Foreign Policy”

Venezuela – Oil Economy on Slippery Ground

Rusty oildrums, by Gabe/flickr
Oildrums, courtesy of Gabe/flickr

Will Venezuela be next to stumble into a debt crisis – ironically, a country well endowed with the world’s most sought after resource? In its most recent issue, The Economist raises this question, as rumors swirl that the Bolivarian Republic might not be able to repay its international obligations between 2012 and 2015. The possible default of one of the world’s foremost oil producers should give the international community pause although any crisis is unlikely to materialize immediately. However, as soon as oil prices fall considerably below $100 per barrel, the Venezuelan economy will be deprived of its main foreign income, and a debt crisis might not be far behind – possibly threatening  President Hugo Chavez’ long rule.

L’état, c’est Hugo

Despite high oil prices, Venezuelan GDP has been contracting for the last three years and inflation has been over 20 percent since 2007. Exports have been falling steadily and because power and water infrastructure falls short of much needed investment, Venezuelans are often forced to take cold showers. Even productivity in the state-owned oil company PDVSA has decreased by a third since Chavez took power in 1999. Chavez is infamous for his erratic behavior and his dislike of the private sector. During his 12-year rule, he has nationalized hundreds of domestic and foreign companies, closely regulated the economy and eliminated market mechanisms. In this way Chavez has paved the way for widespread corruption and inefficiency. Moreover, he has been governing by decree since December 2010, which grants him almost unlimited power to push through policies without parliamentary control. In Venezuela l’état, c’est Hugo. In this atmosphere of impunity many Venezuelan entrepreneurs have given up their businesses, and foreigners are increasingly reluctant to invest. In a recent country risk assessment Venezuela ranked 93 out of 100 – with civil-war plagued neighbor Colombia ranking a much higher 51.

The Achilles heel

As the government has successfully dismantled the private economy, Venezuela’s dependence on revenues from oil exports has increased, and imports have risen as many goods are no longer produced in Venezuela. Oil production makes up about a third of GDP and generates the lion’s share of the government’s revenue. Fluctuating oil prices are thus the Achilles heel of the whole economy. As soon as oil prices fall, Chavez might find it difficult to keep up public spending and to repay international obligations (net public debt was 29 percent of GDP in 2010). This might not only lead to a debt crisis and hamper economic growth but also to a decline in Chavez’ popularity. With plans to run again for president in 2012, he is in dire need of oil money to subsidize basic goods such as food. Otherwise the poorest will be hit even harder by rising food and living costs, with their incomes eaten up by staggering inflation – perhaps just like Chavez’ personal political future.

* For more information, please see our extensive resources on Venezuelan Energy, Economics, Politics and Security.

Trying to Play Chicken with Everybody’s Money

A slow and painful battle over America's financial future, photo: Benjamin Reed/flickr

The bumbling US Tea Party has issued its latest ultimatum: cut public expenditures or risk defaulting on the national debt. And how? By stopping lawmakers from raising the country’s legal debt ceiling, currently set at $14.3 trillion. The US Treasury reckons it will hit and inevitably exceed the limit sometime between late March and May.

The Obama White House has deemed the issue non-negotiable. Is it an idle threat?

Strictly speaking, the Tea Party doesn’t have the votes in Congress. Mainstream Republicans would all have to vote no. Mainstream Republicans, however, primarily serve the interests of the corporate and financial elite; overt attempts to undermine US economic power typically receive a cold reception with this crowd.

As discussed in my ISN Blog post last week, the instance of disagreement nevertheless puts the spotlight on the growing rift in the American Right. It also exposes the ignorance of the frustrated Tea Partiers. Nuking your economy is no solution to your economic woes.

Continue reading “Trying to Play Chicken with Everybody’s Money”

As the Crisis in Egypt Unfolds….

More than a week later, Tahrir Square is still full of demonstrators, photo: Mashahed/flickr

With rumors abound that Mubarak will have to accept a US brokered deal to step down today (amid fresh waves of protests in Cairo), the situation in Egypt is developing so fast that accurate and constantly updated information is key to understanding the present and possible future of this Arab stalwart. What will this day bring to the streets of Cairo? More horrific violence or a sense of renewed resolve and purpose? Will Friday, 4 February 2011, mark the end of Mubarak’s three decade rule?

In addition to pointing you to resources we hold in the ISN Digital Library on Egypt in last week’s post (lots of interesting stuff analyzing the background to the current crisis), we’d like to give you a taster of what we’re monitoring here at the ISN for the newest information on the crisis as it unfolds, day by day, hour by hour.

The best way to stay up to date is to follow Twitter streams: Search for #Egypt or #Cairo to get a live stream of tweets relating to the protests or follow Al Jazeera’s twitter stream which is currently focused on this issue.

You can also follow News Blogs: we found the Guardian News Blog, the Reuters Live Blog and the Al Jazeera Live Blog to be the some of the best in providing up-to-date information and analysis on the situation on the ground.

In addition, Andrew Sullivan- a prominent blogger at the Atlantic magazine does a stellar job at scouring through the Net to find interesting information and quotes on the issue, in addition to providing biting and up-to-date original analysis.

And of course, let’s not forget @Sandmonkey, a prominent Egyptian blogger and activist who is tweeting from Tahrir square as we speak!

Let us know if you’ve found other sources to be equally, or even more helpful.