Learning Intelligence

Chris Pallaris of i-intelligence explaining intelligence tools to ISN staff, image: Emilie Boillat/ISN

In order to be able to offer increasingly intelligent services, we are educating ourselves. This week, the ISN team is taking a workshop on “Skills in Intelligence Collection and Analysis.”

Let’s start with an intelligence problem. Thinking about the US mid-terms, we wondered about the future of the US during a coffee break. Our (bold) question: Might the US disintegrate over the course of the next decade?

Applying the methodology taught by Chris Pallaris of i-intelligence, we’d first analyze the problem by taking it apart. Intelligence analysis is problem-solving. As any good intelligence problem, our question asks for a predictive answer. Intelligence IS prediction.

The first step would be to make our assumptions concerning the US and its future explicit by writing them down. Assumptions are key to our thinking but need to be watched closely and examined critically because they may lead us to a  biased answer. Next, we would formulate hypotheses. As many as possible. We would develop indicators to monitor the stability and future prospects of the US. We would need to have a collection plan to guide the accumulation of information. In doing this, ‘source awareness’ helps us look for information in the right places.

Our problem may not demand an immediate answer. It may, as Chris put it, be a “wicked problem” that has no neat answer at all. We needn’t hurry. The tension between an accurate prediction crafted with care and time, and the limited amount of time available for decision-making and action, however, is always there. The longer we wait in answering the question at hand, the less time there is for our government to look for new allies and to do contingency planning.

Do you think our speculations are unrealistic? Well, intelligence is also about thinking the unthinkable.

We hope the ISN keeps inspiring you and catering to your intelligence needs with the resources we offer in the Digital Library and the analyses we provide with ISN Insights.

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When You Feed the Blog, It Grows

Nourish it and it will grow... photo: Brenda Anderson/flickr

To give our readers a sense of who reads the ISN blog, and exactly how many readers we have every month, I thought I’d take you on a quick tour of the ISN Blog readership. The impetus for this ‘tour’ came with the realization that our blog has been on a trajectory of healthy, even robust, growth in the past half a year, with October alone marking a 20 percent jump in our unique visitor numbers, now up to 7,000 unique visits each month. Page views, conversely, continue to hit the 30,000 mark every month.

This is great news and such rapid growth is particularly encouraging. What about the location of our readers then? As you read this, do you find yourself in a country where our reach is particularly wide or are you an ISN Blog pioneer? Most of our readers are based where we are based- Switzerland, but our US and UK readers are almost as numerous. We’re also increasingly popular in France, Germany, China and Israel, displaying the scope for growth in emerging and rapidly growing regions like the Middle East and Asia.

But is readership steady throughout the week? Interestingly enough, although it is quite steady, with many people checking out our blog even on Saturdays and Sundays, Thursdays are the most high-traffic days with the blog receiving an average of 1,900 page views on that day.

Thank you for your support and patronage thus far- keep visiting us, keep interacting and keep spreading the word!

Christians in the Middle East

Domes of St. Mark Church in Cairo, Egypt, courtesy of Bakar_88

The situation for Christians in the Middle East is difficult and increasingly precarious. From Morocco to Egypt and Iraq, they have come under pressure either from governments or from Islamic groups. The latest dramatic event happened this weekend, when a Christian church was attacked in Iraq by a group linked to al-Qaida, killing at least 50 people.

It’s worth reviewing the situation in some of the Middle Eastern states with sizable and historical Christian communities:

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ISN Insights: Look Back, Week Ahead

A new week, a new month, photo: Leo Reynolds/flickr

Last week, ISN Insights examined China’s foreign relations in more detail:

This week, we’ll be looking at the following topics: US mid-term elections, the Israel-Syria-Hezbollah triangle, the African National Congress, and China-Burma relations in the run-up to Burma’s impending elections.

Make sure to check back each day for the newest ISN Insights package. And if you’re an active Twitter or Facebook user, look us up and become a follower!

Sacrificing the Women of Afghanistan

But what about the women of Afghanistan? photo: Marius Arnesen/flickr

“If someone is sentenced to death, they must be killed with a gun, and photographing the execution is forbidden.” So goes one of the directives handed down by Taliban leader Mullah Omar in an effort to avoid images that might cause a rift between the movement and supporters. It was part of a 69-point document, published in May 2009, which formed a new PR strategy designed to recast the insurgency around local liberation rather than violent fundamentalism.

Western moves toward ‘reconciliation’ and withdrawal suggest that the strategy has helped to maintain the narrative of a war that ‘cannot be won’. Much of the recent media focus has been on abuses perpetrated by the coalition and its partners: the Wikileaks revelations, charges against British forces, and unlawful killings by the Pakistani military. These have contributed to the collapse in international public support – with 63 percent and 58 percent of UK and US populations now opposing the war.

Politically, the criteria for withdrawal has been narrowed. British Prime Minister Cameron said that he could “sum it up in two words…national security: clearing al-Qaida out of Afghanistan, damaging them in Pakistan. We don’t have some dreamy ideas about this mission.” President Obama now supports efforts to “open the door to the Taliban” and has backed Afghan President Karzai’s move to form a reconciliation ‘high peace council’ and invite the Taliban into parliament. As one western diplomat explained: “We are not going to be sending troops and spending money forever. There will have to be a compromise, and sacrifices will have to be made.”

But who, specifically, will be making the sacrifice? Last week, a UAE-owned television station provided an emphatic answer – if indeed it was ever doubted – by smuggling out what is believed to be the first verified recording of the Taliban stoning a woman. The grainy but horrifying images of a hooded victim kneeling before her executioners – after she was accused of “being seen with a man” – are testament to the reality of life for women in the Taliban-controlled areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan, under an ideological movement that also kills women who go to school, work or participate in the political process (along with the men who support them).

The reality of what is at stake is illustrated in the story of Robina Jalalai, one of Afghanistan’s first two female Olympic athletes, who now trains “in the stadium where the Taliban used to play football with women’s heads.”

Continue reading “Sacrificing the Women of Afghanistan”