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No Sleeping Beauty: A Framework for Coordinated Defense in the EU

Image courtesy of European Parliament/Flickr. (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

This article was originally published by IPI Global Observatory on 16 April 2018.

In November last year, 23 member states of the European Union (EU) made a historic decision to move defense cooperation from a mere political commitment to concrete action, through awakening what has been called “the sleeping beauty” of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty.

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It’s Not Really About the Nukes – Crisis Negotiation in North Korea

Image courtesy of Dreidprawns/Wikipedia. CC BY-SA 3.0

This article was originally published by Political Violence @ a Glance on 12 April 2018.

The United States may soon have a shot at talking directly to North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. Given this unique opportunity, what foreign policy tactics should US negotiators use in the effort to denuclearize the Korean peninsula? It may seem strange, but negotiators might consider taking a lesson from the FBI and the field of Crisis Negotiation to show us a better path to de-escalation.

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Strategic Trends 2018

US President Donald Trump returns to the White House after addressing the Republican Congressional Retreat, 1 February 2018. Yuri Gripas / Reuters

Strategic Trends 2018: The CSS has published its annual analysis of major developments in world affairs. The four topics covered include whether or not emerging trends suggest the US could become a less reliable partner for Europe; why Russia and China are likely to continue building closer relations; the potential impact of energy technologies on international politics; and how resilience can act as an instrument of deterrence.

CLICK HERE to download the publication.
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Economic Ties between Russia, China, the US and the EU in 2016

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This graphic plots the volume of trade between Russia, China, the US and the EU in 2016. For more on the China-Russia relationship, see Brian Carlson’s chapter for Strategic Trends 2018 here. For more CSS charts, maps and graphics on economics, click here.

From Policy to Populism: Donald Trump’s Trade Policy in Global Context

Image courtesy of The White House/Flickr.

This article was originally published by the Elcano Royal Institute on 10 April 2018.

Theme

An open multilateral trade system is under direct challenge from the policies of President Donald Trump. The year 2018 will be crucial.

Summary

This paper reviews US trade policy one year on after the election of Donald Trump. It demonstrates that after a year of exacerbating transactionalist and protectionist rhetoric we are now in a position to observe the direction policy is taking in practice. Sadly, it is becoming clear that practice is indeed matching rhetoric. The evidence is gathering. Commencing with withdrawal from the TPP, policy has hardened towards an open multilateral system. The year 2018 has seen attacks on the WTO (stopping appointments to the Appellate Board), followed by moves to introduce tariffs on white goods, aluminium and steel and a strategy for direct activity towards China. The year will also see a hard line towards NAFTA re-negotiations. The prospects of enhanced trade tension –trade war, even– is the obvious next stage flowing from Trump’s policy. Major players are likely to retaliate.

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