Ralph A Stamm

ISNetworking in Washington

Talking to Roland Schatz (left) of Media Tenor, an ISN partner; photo: Patricia Moser/ISN

The program of the American Political Science Association‘s (APSA) 2010 Annual Meeting & Exhibition is 400 pages thick. It features hundreds of panels, plenaries, poster sessions and workshops covering topics from women and political research to international security and arms control.

More than 90 exhibitors populate the halls of the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in Washington, DC. Among publishing houses and research institutes present there is also the ISN. We explain our services, talk to old acquaintances and discuss future partnerships. This is where the International Relations and Security Network really becomes tangible and personal.

I decided to start the day with a panel. Overwhelmed by the choice, one topic caught my interest: The Future of Blogging. Does political blogging have a future at all? Haven’t blogs been replaced already by still newer media such as Twitter, which require less time and allows for more instant communication?

Seven experts, political scientists as well as long-time bloggers talked about their research and experience, but didn’t quite manage to tell the future of blogging. Three ideas I picked up:

  • Even though the Obama campaign managed to raise millions of dollars with its social media strategy, the Obama administration was disappointed about how little money it got through its health care reform campaign. This disappointment shows that the power of social media in politics had been overestimated.
  • Blogs seem to be a very popular tool among the political opposition (progressives before Obama’s election, conservatives now), but not so much within the ruling camp. They are a medium for political criticism and protest.
  • Two interesting developments can be observed in the US: Politicians are hiring staff to manage their ‘blogger relations’; politicians invite bloggers to press conference-like events, where they ask questions and are expected to kick-off fundraising campaigns.

If you happen to be at the APSA Annual Meeting visit us at booth 1102 in Exibit Hall B at the Marriott Wardman Park. We look forward to meeting you.

Almost Perfect Yasuni Deal

Promotion video of Ecuador’s Yasuni Ishpingo Tambococha Tiputini (ITT) initiative

In May, Jonas Rey reported about a plan by the government of Ecuador to forgo the extraction of oil in its Yasuni region in exchange for money. The goal is to prevent the emission of 407 million metric tons of CO2 and at the same time protect a piece of tropical rainforest, which is considered to be the most biologically diverse place on earth.

The plan developed by the economist Alberto Acosta was first met with skepticism by Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa, who thought it inappropriate for his former energy minister to come up with such an idea. Finally endorsed by the president, it began to materialize when on the 4 August Ecuador agreed with the UN Development Programme (UNDP) to establish a trust fund, which would manage financial contributions by donors.

The UNDP has experience in managing such funds through its Multi Donor Trust Fund Office, which already administers more than 30 funds covering 74 countries. The balance sheet of the Ecuador Yasuni ITT Trust Fund is still at zero, but according to Swiss Radio DRS, Germany, France and Spain are considering payment to the fund, of which Ecuador will only receive the interest. The capital is kept as security, in case Ecuador changes its mind and drills oil in the region after all.

What looks like an innovative and promising scheme to link climate policy, environmental protection and sustainable development, also has its disadvantages. The initiative is intended, according to its proponents, to protect two tribes of the Huaorani indigenous people, which renounce any contact with modern civilization. According to a local expert, who talked to Swiss Radio DRS, however, the tribes do not live in the area protected by the scheme but in an area designated by the Ecuadorian government for crude oil extraction. The protected area supposedly consists of swamps not inhabitable by people.

For potential donors far away it’s difficult to judge what the effects of this initiative will ultimately be. However, as the broadcast points out, the protection of the environment should not come at the expense of human beings and vice versa. People and their environment need to be considered together. I encourage countries, companies and individuals to contribute money to the fund. Yet, it’s not too late to change the plan to better respect the indigenous people.

Find an evaluation of the Ecuadorian proposal in our Digital Library.

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OSINT Report 2/2010

OSINT Report 2/2010

In our second Open Source Intelligence Report, Felix Juhl gives an introduction to cloud computing and its security implications. He argues that appropriate risk analyses, proper service level agreements and professional provider management are key to building and maintaining sustainable cloud information architectures.

Jan Störger theoretically approaches the role of OSINT for the intelligence community. He separates Open Source Intelligence from Non-Open Source Intelligence both in terms of sources and the means required to collect and exploit those sources. Furthermore, he suggests a model that describes its potential usefulness for non-state OSINT contributors.

Florian Schaurer looks into the use of social tagging within enterprises, addressing the importance of accurate taxonomies for collectively allocating and making best use of a broad range of sources.

He also examines the theory and application of academic source criticism, claiming that even in the digital age with its unparalleled variety, velocity and volume of information, the methods developed by historical and related sciences for working with sources are still crucial and up to date.

The Report is available in German. See also the ISN’s further resources on OSINT.

Swapping Land, Changing Priorities?

According to Bulgarian sources, the Serbian government is considering a land swap with Kosovo. In exchange for a territory in northern Kosovo mainly inhabited by Serbs (grey area in map below), they would offer parts of the Presevo valley in southern Serbia, where a majority of the population is Albanian (shaded red area on the right.)

Ethnic map of Kosovo and neighboring regions / © BBC

Yet, Kosovars don’t seem to like the idea. The prime minister of neighboring Albania has also rejected the idea, arguing that it is important to keep political borders in the region as they are.

Trying to carve out ethnically homogeneous polities is indeed problematic, simply because it will never work. Neither the Presovo valley, which would be added to Kosovo, nor the northern parts of Kosovo, which Serbia claims, are inhabited by the respective ethnicity exclusively. There will always remain an ethnic minority, whose rights need to be protected.

There is an interesting aspect to the Serbian “proposal”, though. By suggesting a land swap with Kosovo, does the Serbian government not somehow recognize the country’s sovereignty, which officially is still part of Serbia? The plan adds at least evidence to the argument that Serbia attaches less and less importance to the status of Kosovo. If Serbia will eventually have to choose between the EU and Kosovo, as Igor Jovanovic suggested last week, will it choose the EU?

To me it seems it will. To admit so, however, would be suicide for the current Serbian government.

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New ISN Partner: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik

SWP LogoWe are proud to announce that the German Institute for International and Security Affairs of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) has joined the ISN partner network.

SWP is an independent academic research center based in Berlin. It advises the German parliament and the federal government on foreign and security policy issues.

As a partner, SWP will share their publications with the ISN.

Welcome to the ISN, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik!