The Drone in the Desert

Military drone
Military drone. Image by CliffStreetPhotography/flickr.

TEL AVIV – A drone recently penetrated Israel’s airspace from the Mediterranean. It was allowed to fly for about half an hour over southern Israel before being shot down by the Israeli air force over a sparsely populated area. It is still not known who dispatched the drone and from where, but it is now assumed that it was launched from Lebanon, either by Hezbollah, acting in Iran’s service, or by forces of the Iranian regime itself.

If that is indeed the case, the episode should not be regarded as yet another incident in a region fraught by conflict and violence. On the contrary, it is a significant window into the arena in which the conflict over the future of Iran’s nuclear program is being waged.

Several developments and forces are now shaping this arena. One is Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s decision, announced in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly last month, to suspend his threat to launch unilateral military action against Iran’s nuclear installations. He has said that Israel will give the US and the rest of the international community an opportunity to stop Iran’s progress through other means by the spring or early summer of 2013.

Time to Test Iran

Satellite imagery of suspected Fordo underground uranium enrichment facility in Iran
Satellite imagery of suspected Fordo underground uranium enrichment facility in Iran. Photo: Podknox/flickr.

NEW YORK – Most of the debate about how to address Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear-weapons capacity focuses on two options. The first is to rely on deterrence and live with an Iran that has a small nuclear arsenal or the ability to assemble one with little advance notice. The second is to launch a preventive military strike aimed at destroying critical parts of the Iranian program and setting back its progress by an estimated two or more years.

But now a third option has emerged: negotiating a ceiling on the nuclear program that would not be too low for Iran’s government and not too high for the United States, Israel, and the rest of the world.

In fact, such an option has been around for years – and in several rounds of negotiations. What has changed, however, is the context. And changes in context can be critical; indeed, what happens away from the negotiating table almost always determines the outcome of face-to-face talks.

Iran’s Electoral Strategy

Former US embassy Iran
The former US embassy in Tehran. Photo: Örlygur Hnefill/flickr.

WASHINGTON, DC – Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program have again hit a wall, but the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appears unconcerned. Indeed, Khamenei seems convinced that neither the United States nor Israel will attack its nuclear facilities – at least not before the US presidential election in November.

Ironically, while Khamenei is no fan of democracy, he relies on the fact that his principal enemies are bound by democratic constraints. Khamenei controls Iran’s nuclear program and its foreign policy, but the US and Israel must work to reach consensus not only within their respective political systems, but also with each other.

Occupy’s Middle East Potential

Occupy Wall Street demonstration in Seattle
Occupy Wall Street demonstration in Seattle. Photo: tofuguns/flickr.

On September 17th, Occupy Wall Street will celebrate one year of protests in a National Day of Action, dubbed #S17. That this date also happens to coincide with Rosh Hashanah is symbolic of the relationship Occupy has had with American and Israeli Jews since the first days of the movement.

The Jews of Occupy Wall Street and side group Occupy Judaism were extremely energetic and involved during the Zuccotti Park era, when Jewish protestors celebrated the Occupy version of the High Holidays in the open space. Although Occupy Judaism has waned since the evictions, organizers are hoping to see a resurgence in activity with the one-year anniversary.

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Global Voices

Israel: Defense Budget vs. Social Justice

The Defense Budget by Amitai SandyCartoon of The Defense Budget by Amitai Sandy. Used with permission. Text from right-to-left: A-You, B-Me, C-the next war. 

 

One of the major results of the social justice protests in Israel in the last year has been a renewed debate about the budgetary priorities of the state. The social justice movement (also known as #j14) demanded a more equal distribution of wealth in Israel, including funneling a greater share of the budget to welfare services for the population such as subsidized housing, free education, and better medical services, at the expense of current budgetary priorities – namely, the defense budget.