Tag: Iran

Iran: Little Room for Maneuver

Tehran - back in the limelight? Photo: Mohammadali f./flickr

Although the rest of the Middle East is now rightly in the spotlight, Iran, with a simmering opposition movement and a highly controversial nuclear program (the focal point in regional diplomacy prior to the ‘Jasmine revolutions’) will no doubt return to the forefront of regional affairs very soon. However, the diplomatic equation in the conflict between Iran and the West may be changing, and contrary to the sometimes hysterical warnings of some commentators in the West and the bellicose rhetoric of Iran’s president, Tehran is in a corner. Below some points to keep in mind when analyzing the situation:

  • What country, more precisely what regime, currently faces an existential threat and finds itself surrounded by the world’s most powerful fighting force on three of four borders (principally Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf, but also Iraq): nuclear-armed Israel or Iran?
  • How much of this all is a securitization game? Prime Minister Netanyahu and especially Israel’s political right keep the focus on the country’s purported ‘insecurity’ and off the West Bank; President Ahmadinejad, in turn, exploits the external threat to consolidate support back home and divert attention from his lousy track record in actually governing Iran.
  • If Iran decides to weaponize, will it not first withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)? The 1980 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties and the NPT, which the US and Iran have both signed and ratified, respectively, demand it. Although this instance could very well prove the exception to the rule, Iran is not North Korea. Iran maintains relations and accords with many other states in the international system, all of which count on it to uphold some modicum of predictability. It is likely to do so despite its belligerent rhetoric.
    Continue reading “Iran: Little Room for Maneuver”

How United Is the Arab Front?

Arab stone design, courtesy of Eusebius@Commons/flickr

The Arab community has always publicly supported its Muslim counterparts. As a result there is an alliance among these states in opposition to Israel and the occupation of Palestine. However, it appears that behind the facade of Arab unity lies a game of dirty politics, where each state acts in self-interest often in contrast to the projected image of unity and loyalty.

A recent article by The Times publicized Saudi Arabia’s green light to Israel to use its air space to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.  This is surprising as it pits Muslim states against each other openly and brings the reality of Arab loyalty into question.

In order to attack Iran’s nuclear sites, Israel has the choice of three routes. The northern route involves passing the Syrian-Turkish border. The central route goes over Jordan and Iraq, while the third southern route goes through Saudi Arabia and Iraq or Kuwait. So let’s assess where these Middle Eastern states stand.

Continue reading “How United Is the Arab Front?”
Categories
Uncategorized

The ISN Quiz: Iran

Iran is the focus of our Special Report this week. How much do you know about the Islamic Republic?
[QUIZZIN 22]

Categories
Uncategorized

ISN Weekly Theme: Iran – Reckless or Rational?

Detail of a carpet depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khāmene’i, photo: youngrobv/flickr

The Islamic Republic’s recent political provocations against the West have left observers wondering: Is such behavior the result of careful calculation or messianic madness?

  • An Analysis by Philip McCrum about Iranian President Ahmadinejad’s fragile hold on power five years after his contested election win.
  • A Podcast interview with Dr John Mueller on the Iranian nuclear threat – or lack thereof.
  • Security Watch articles on Iran’s struggling Jewish community, the nuclear question and much more.
  • Publications housed in our Digital Library, including recent US Congressional Research Service analyses on US foreign policy toward a nuclear hungry Iran.
  • Primary Resources, including last week’s joint declaration By Iran, Turkey and Brazil on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.
  • Links to relevant websites, such as the ArmsControlWonk blog published by Dr Jeffrey Lewis of the New America Foundation.
  • Our IR Directory, featuring the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Harvard University.

Dubai’s Woes, Iran’s Headache

Aspirin tablets / Photo: wikimedia commons
Aspirin tablets / Photo: wikimedia commons

Dubai has celebrated the opening of the world’s tallest skyscraper, the Burj Dubai, with a spectacular – not to mention costly – fireworks display. But the 10,000 fireworks did not blind us from the fact that the city and those who have put their hopes and money into Dubai are hurting. We all know who the main losers are:

    • The all-too-credulous investors willing to give cheap loans to Dubai World and Nakheel assuming their loans were guaranteed by the governments of Dubai and Abu Dhabi: A significant amount of this debt is believed to be bad debt (read: not backed by viable assets) – Moody’s has put the figure at about USD25 billion.

 

    • The city of Dubai itself, whose debt load – depending on whose estimates you are referring to – amount to between 100 and 200 percent of Dubai’s USD82 billion GDP: And it is not over yet – real estate prices in Dubai are expected to decline even further in 2010 as investors are abandoning their construction projects.

 

  • Dubai’s political independence within the UAE’s loose federation: Dubai has been enjoying special sovereign rights, such as control of customs, over parts of the judiciary and of its stock market. The UAE’s oil-rich capital Abu Dhabi’s offer to partially bail out its broke neighbor will most likely come at a political price. It is likely that Dubai will have to relinquish some of its sovereign powers to federal authorities.

Yet another loser, less talked-about but most significant in geopolitical terms, could be Iran.

During the Iran-Iraq war, Dubai was one of three UAE emirates that leaned more toward Iran, and it has continued to maintain the closest ties to the country among all UAE emirates. Iran is one of Dubai’s major trading partners. Both benefit tremendously from this relationship. As one observer states, “The trade between Iran and Dubai is one of the principal sources of Tehran’s confidence that it can survive US-led sanctions. Iranian investment in Dubai amounts to about US $14 billion each year.”

Some banks have been accused by the US government of indirectly doing business with Iran through Dubai-based institutions. Vice versa, Tehran has been accused of circumventing sanctions by doing business through Dubai based front companies.

Abu Dhabi has long resented Dubai’s ties to Iran. The UAE fears Iran’s regional ambitions and nuclear program, and it still has a territorial dispute over three UAE islands currently occupied by Iran. Besides, Dubai’s closeness to Iran is an embarrassment to the UAE in its close relationship with the US.

Dubai’s financial crisis is putting Abu Dhabi into the enviable position of being able to attach strings to its bailout offer. Although the US has kept mum about it in public, no doubt Washington encourages Abu Dhabi to make bailout money dependent on Dubai severing commercial ties with Iran.

And as Dubai is tightening its belt, Iran may find it just a little harder to circumvent international sanctions.