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Central Asia: Challenges Intensify, Geopolitics Doesn’t

Once considered an island of democracy in Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan – here its presidential office, the White House – hosted the last Central Asia summit in July 2022. (Source: Chatrina Schumacher, July 2022)

Russia’s predominant role in Central Asia is set to decline following its war in Ukraine. This creates both an urgency as well as an opportunity for the Central Asian states to diversify their external ties. Many potential partners seem keen to fill some of the void, but their actual engagement remains limited. The region’s relative stability has priority, which favors the ruling elites’ authoritarianism. Conversely, this may foster instability in the long run.

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Why India Remains Neutral over Ukraine

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin at the 21st India–Russia Annual summit in New Delhi on December 6, 2021. (This image is a copyrighted work of the Government of India, licensed under the Government Open Data License – India (GODL) It was published by Press Information Bureau on behalf of Prime Minister’s Office, Government of India under the ID 105749.)

As Russia’s war rages in Ukraine, India has so far refrained from publicly criticizing Russia. India is unlikely to change course. This mirrors its national interests. India’s worst-case scenario would be an isolated Russia.

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Key Maritime Oil Chokepoints and Daily Volumes

This week’s featured graphic maps key maritime oil chokepoints and daily volumes. For more on the Geostrategic Storm in the Indian Ocean read Boas Lieberherr’s CSS Analysis in Security Policy here.

Ending Terror in Kashmir

Image courtesy of Jesse Rapczak/Flickr. (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

This article was originally published by Political Violence @ a Glance on 22 February 2019.

Why—on February 14th— did a 20-year-old Kashmiri villager blow himself up, taking with him the lives of 46 Indian security personnel? What should the Indian government do in response to the deadliest attack on its forces in Kashmir since the insurgency began in 1988?

In Search of the Real Indo-Pacific

Image courtesy of US Department of Defense/Vernon Young Jr.

This article was originally published by YaleGlobal Online on 14 June 2018.

Global powers show renewed interest in the Indo-Pacific region, but should resist piling on with geopolitical intentions

The 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore might as well have been renamed the “Indo-Pacific Dialogue.” In the plenaries and the panels, in the Q&As, corridors, and coffee breaks, not even the imminent Trump-Kim summit hosted by Singapore could compete with the “Indo-Pacific” among the attendees. Although the toponym itself is old, its sudden popularity is new, reflecting new geopolitical aspirations for the region.