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From Belarus with Love: The Limits of Lukashenko’s Dalliance with the West

Image courtesy of OSCE Parliamentary Assembly/Flickr. (CC BY-SA 2.0)

This article was originally published by War on the Rocks on 3 April 2019.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its intervention in Eastern Ukraine demonstrated not only its unpredictability but also its willingness to violate agreements and use force to alter borders and destabilize countries in its neighborhood. These events not only shocked the West; they also shook Russia’s allies to the core, not least Belarus. Long branded as “Europe’s last dictatorship,” this Eastern European state is considered Russia’s staunchest ally. And indeed, no country is culturally closer or politically, militarily, and economically more integrated with Russia than Belarus.

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The Gas Transmission System in Russia’s East

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This graphic maps current and proposed Russian gas pipeline projects in the country’s East, including the ‘Power of Siberia’ pipeline which traverses the Russian-Chinese border. For more on the Sino-Russia relationship, see Brian Carlson’s chapter for Strategic Trends 2018 here. For more CSS charts, maps and graphics on natural resources, click here.

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Cold War versus Today

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This graphic shows how the USSR compared to the US in terms of population, real GDP per capita (USD), defense spending (in billion USD) and nuclear weapons in the 1980s, as well as how the US compares to Russia in these key areas today. For an analysis of how different interpretations of the recent past still affect West-Russia relations and what is needed to rebuild trust, see Christian Nünlist’s chapter in Strategic Trends 2017 here. For more CSS charts and graphics, click here.

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From Vancouver to Vladivostok: The 57 OSCE Participating States

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This graphic of the week maps the 57 OSCE participating states and the organization’s 11 partner countries. To find out more about the OSCE, see Christian Nünlist’s CSS Analyses “The OSCE and the Future of European Security” and “The OSCE’s Military Pillar: The Swiss FSC Chairmanship“. For more CSS charts, maps and graphics on defense policy, click here.

Russia’s Approach to the Development of Intermediate-Range Missiles

Image courtesy of Jacob Smith/DVIDS

This article was originally published by the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) on 14 November 2018.

Russia will present the expected withdrawal of the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Elimination Treaty (INF) as a step forcing a military response from Moscow. Even if the Russian Federation were to violate the INF by deploying new cruise missiles with a range greater than 500 km, the U.S. withdrawal from the treaty creates opportunity to blur responsibility. In the event of divided opinions within NATO, Russia’s position in arms control might be stronger vis-à-vis Europe and, indirectly, the United States. Moreover, Russia will continue expansion of its arsenal of ground-launched missiles.