Leaders for a Leaderless World

World map and compass
Wind rose map in the center of the compass. Photo: Lee Cannon.

PARIS – The newspaper commentaries that I write often have a dark perspective. Sadly, this one will be no different. But there are two pieces of good news that break through the gloom.

First, the global significance of US President Barack Obama’s reelection is clear: the world has escaped a disaster for international cooperation. The US was on the verge of sinking into isolationist nationalism, reinforced, perhaps, by xenophobic sentiment. Obama’s victory, despite America’s economic travails, clears the way for cooperation based on a sympathetic ear to others and on negotiations in which the US does not deny the legitimacy of a global public interest (as it has done, unfortunately, on the issue of climate change).

The other piece of good news concerns France, and thus is more “local,” but is crucially important nonetheless. Like everywhere else in the developed world, the global crisis has hit the French economy hard, with output stagnating, unemployment rising, job insecurity mounting, government debt soaring, and the stock market at risk of crashing. Manufacturing production has plummeted, the trade balance has deteriorated sharply, and corporate bankruptcies are increasingly frequent.

For six months, France has had new leadership – a new president, government, and parliament. But President François Hollande and his government were strangely inactive after the elections, limiting themselves to reducing the impact of unfair budget cuts and taxation reforms implemented by the previous government of Nicolas Sarkozy. Many began to wonder whether Hollande was aware of the scope of the crisis that the recent downturn might trigger.

In recent weeks, however, the government has introduced energetic and courageous measures to boost the competitiveness of French industries, including a huge €20 billion ($26 billion) tax break for businesses, to be financed by a hike in value-added tax, which means that the general public will pay for it. The VAT increase will hurt, but there was no other way. Awareness, boldness, and comprehensive policymaking have come as a relief to French investors, and have left them better positioned to face the crisis.

The French government’s new push to confront the country’s economic plight matters not only to France, but to Europe and the world as well. After all, France is the eurozone’s second-largest economy, and the fifth-largest economy in the world.

And yet, despite these bright spots, international cooperation on issues ranging from regional conflicts to the protection of global public goods remains weak. Antarctica, the only land in the world that is administered directly by the international community, is a recent case in point.

The Antarctic Treaty, negotiated in 1959, prohibits any and all military activities in Antarctica and forbids the establishment of any borders. Three agreements – the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Seals (1972), the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR, 1980), and the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty (PEP, 1991), which prohibits any activity relating to mineral resources – have since been added to the treaty.

The Antarctic Treaty System includes three annual meetings: one deals with the supervision and management of the Treaty itself, and the other two concern the CCAMLR and the PEP. In recent years, proposals have been considered that would establish marine reserves around the continent and end the risk of growing scarcity, or the outright disappearance, of a variety of species of fish and cetaceans.

The principle that international cooperation is required to protect fishery resources, which are dwindling everywhere, was adopted at the 2011 CCAMLR meeting. At the 2012 CCAMLR meeting, which concluded at the beginning of November in Hobart, Australia, three proposals (from the US, New Zealand, and France/Australia) to establish marine reserves in three different areas were discussed. They were compatible and would reinforce one another. Yet the discussion foundered, and no decision was taken. Russia and Ukraine – and, to a lesser extent, China – blocked efforts to reach an agreement.

This failure reflects the same dynamic at work in the breakdown of global climate-change conferences in recent years: a few cynical countries, whose cooperation is needed to save the planet, fuel the madness of those bent on destroying it. That will not change until a new consciousness emerges worldwide to persuade states to support binding international law.

The US has now reelected a president who understands this. France has a president who understands the need for bold, far-reaching actions as well. Their active leadership, and that of others, is needed now more than ever to turn the tide.

Copyright Project Syndicate

Michel Rocard is a former French prime minister and former leader of the French Socialist Party. For further information on the topic, please view the following publications from our partners:

The Nature and Role of Regional Agreements in International Environmental Politics

Tackling Macroeconomic Risks – A Case for Stronger Transatlantic Cooperation

 Creating a Global Partnership for Effective Development Cooperation


For more information on issues and events that shape our world please visit the ISN’s Security Watch and Editorial Plan.

El giro asiático de Estados Unidos no parece tener eje

Obama meets with Myanmar’s President Thein Sein. Photo: Pete Souza/Wikimedia Commons

NUEVA DELHI – El primer viaje al extranjero que hará el presidente Barack Obama después de obtener su segundo mandato electoral será a Asia, lo que destaca el nuevo papel central de esta región respecto de la economía y la seguridad de los Estados Unidos. Pero la gira asiática de Obama también recalca la importancia de una duda que genera la política estadounidense para la región: ¿el “giro” de Estados Unidos hacia Asia adquirirá contenido estratégico concreto o será solamente una continuación de políticas antiguas bajo un nuevo barniz retórico?

Estados Unidos no dejó pasar la ocasión de capitalizar las inquietudes que causa en la región la cada vez más enérgica autoafirmación de China. Es así que ha reforzado sus lazos militares con sus antiguos aliados asiáticos, a la vez que comienza a tejer lazos con otros amigos nuevos. Pero el deslumbramiento provocado por el regreso de Estados Unidos al centro de la escena en Asia no deja ver los grandes obstáculos que supone para el país seguir siendo el principal sostén de la región en materia de seguridad de cara a las ambiciones estratégicas de China.

Le « pivot » désaxé des Etats-Unis

Obama meets with Myanmar’s President Thein Sein. Photo: Pete Souza/Wikimedia Commons

NEW DELHI – Le premier voyage à l’étranger du président Barack Obama après la victoire de son second mandat met en évidence la nouvelle centralité de l’Asie par rapport à l’économie et à la sécurité des Etats-Unis. Mais la tournée d’Obama en Asie souligne également la principale question de la politique américaine dans la région : le « pivot » des Etats-Unis vers l’Asie va-t-il acquérir un contenu stratégique effectif, ou bien restera-t-il en grande partie un nouvel emballage rhétorique pour de vieilles mesures politiques ?

Les États-Unis, prompts à tirer parti des préoccupations régionales déclenchées par l’affirmation de soi de plus en plus musclée de la Chine, ont renforcé leurs liens militaires avec leurs alliés asiatiques existants et ont forgé des relations de sécurité avec de nouveaux amis. Mais le grisant retour des Etats-Unis au premier plan en Asie a obscurci ses principaux défis, pour demeurer un point d’ancrage principal de sécurité dans la région, face aux ambitions stratégiques de la Chine.

أميركا والمحور المختل

Obama meets with Myanmar’s President Thein Sein. Photo: Pete Souza/Wikimedia Commons

نيودلهي ــ إن أول زيارة يقوم بها الرئيس باراك أوباما منذ فوزه بولاية ثانية تسلط الضوء على محورية آسيا الجديدة بالنسبة لاقتصاد أميركا وأمنها. ولكن جولة أوباما في آسيا أكدت أيضاً على التساؤل الرئيسي حول السياسة الأميركية في المنطقة: هل يكتسب “محور” آسيا الأميركي الجديد مضموناً استراتيجياً ملموسا، أم أنه سيظل إلى حد كبير مجرد إعادة ترتيب خطابية لسياسات قديمة؟

إن الولايات المتحدة، التي سارعت إلى الاستفادة من المخاوف الإقليمية التي أثارها تأكيد الصين لذاتها واستعراض عضلاتها على نحو متزايد، عملت على توثيق علاقاتها العسكرية بحلفائها الحاليين في آسيا وصياغة علاقات أمنية مع أصدقاء جدد. ولكن الوهج المسكر لعودة أميركا إلى الصدارة في آسيا كان سبباً في حجب التحديات الرئيسية التي تواجهها في محاولة البقاء باعتبارها المرتكز الأمني الأساسي للمنطقة في مواجهة الطموحات الصينية الاستراتيجية.

America’s Unhinged “Pivot”

Obama meets with Myanmar’s President Thein Sein. Photo: Pete Souza/Wikimedia Commons

NEW DELHI – President Barack Obama’s first foreign trip since winning a second term highlights Asia’s new centrality to America’s economy and security. But Obama’s Asian tour also underscores the main question about American policy in the region: Will the United States’ “pivot” to Asia acquire concrete strategic content, or will it remain largely a rhetorical repackaging of old policies?

The United States, quick to capitalize on regional concerns triggered by China’s increasingly muscular self-assertion, has strengthened its military ties with its existing Asian allies and forged security relationships with new friends. But the heady glow of America’s return to center stage in Asia has obscured key challenges in remaining the region’s principal security anchor in the face of China’s strategic ambitions.

One challenge is the need to arrest the erosion of America’s relative power, which in turn requires comprehensive domestic renewal, including fiscal consolidation. But the need for spending cuts also raises the prospect that the US might be unable to finance a military shift toward the Asia-Pacific region – or, worse, that it will be forced to retrench there.